Moscow signals desire for diplomatic reset with Seoul. But how far is it willing to go?

From right, Russia's President Vladimir Putin, South Korea's Ambassador to Russia Lee Sok-bae, and Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pose during a ceremony of presenting credentials to Putin by foreign ambassadors at the Alexander Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace on Jan. 15. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]
 
Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed a desire to restore ties with South Korea during a recent diplomatic ceremony as Moscow remains locked in confrontation with the West, and Seoul continues to be classified as an “unfriendly country.”
 
“In the past, by adhering to pragmatic approaches, our countries achieved truly positive results in trade and business," Putin said during a ceremony to receive credentials from new ambassadors, including South Korea’s new envoy to Moscow, Lee Sok-bae, at the Kremlin on Jan. 15. "We look forward to restoring relations with the Republic of Korea.” 
 
The remarks came after nearly four years of frozen ties following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which prompted South Korea to join Western sanctions. Ties worsened further after Russia and North Korea signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2024, and North Korea dispatched military personnel to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. 
 
Putin’s message has drawn scrutiny because it aligns with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's foreign policy agenda of “pragmatic diplomacy,” which prioritizes national interests over ideology.
 
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Hyun said last month he would continue necessary communication with Russia, a stance echoed by the Russian Embassy in Seoul, which stated that diplomatic and economic channels remain open. With peace process talks for the Russia-Ukraine war led by U.S. President Donald Trump underway, the ministry reported to President Lee that it will seek to encourage Russia to play a constructive role on issues related to the Korean Peninsula. 
 

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, right, stands next to South Korea's Ambassador to Russia Lee Sok-bae during a ceremony to receive letters of credence from newly appointed foreign ambassadors at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Jan. 15. [AFP/YONHAP]

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A rhetorical shift
 
Putin has previously stated a desire to improve ties with South Korea, but until now, he has consistently placed the burden on Seoul to take the first step.
 
“It depends on Seoul as to whether Russian-Korean cooperation will be returned to a trajectory of partnership,” he said at a similar credential ceremony in December 2023.
 
At that time, Putin also highlighted cooperation on "mutually beneficial" economic ties and efforts toward "the political and diplomatic settlement for the situation on the Korean Peninsula" — while the Korean Peninsula agenda was notably absent from his most recent remarks, a shift possibly linked to Russia’s deepening military alignment with North Korea. 
 
In June 2024, during a meeting with international news agencies, including a South Korean outlet, he said Moscow “highly appreciates” Seoul’s restraint in not sending arms to Ukraine but once again stressed that it was “the choice of the Korean leadership” for any improvement of bilateral ties.
 
Former South Korean Ambassador to Russia Park Ro-byug told the Korea JoongAng Daily that the latest message shows a noticeably more proactive tone, without explicitly conditioning rapprochement on Seoul’s actions.
 
“This time, by saying Russia ‘looks forward to’ restoring ties, the message carries a more active nuance," Park said, adding that South Korea being mentioned ahead of eight likewise "unfriendly" European countries may also indicate Seoul's relative "priority" in Moscow's diplomatic recalibration.
 
Doo Jin-ho, director of the Eurasia Research Center at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy under the Defense Ministry, suggests Putin’s remarks aren't just routine rhetoric.
 
“Compared to similar statements in the past, the strategic environment has changed qualitatively,” Doo said. “Russia believes it has regained the initiative on the battlefield and views an end to the war as a matter of timing, and is [considering] when and how to pursue an exit strategy.” 
 
Doo added that the reappointment of Lee Sok-bae — a veteran diplomat who served previously as top envoy to Russia from 2019 to 2022, during the transition into war — may also have been interpreted by Moscow as a "signal" that Seoul seeks to manage bilateral ties, prompting a "reciprocal message" from Putin. 
 

Hyundai cars are seen at a customs terminal on the outskirts of Saint Petersburg, Russia, on June 1, 2022. Hyundai Motor suspended its business in Russia after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

Quiet economic signals
 
While formal diplomacy remains on hold, signs of “pragmatism” are already emerging in the economic sphere. 
 
South Korea plans to run a pilot container ship through Russia’s Northern Sea Route, a shorter Arctic shipping path to Europe, this September.
 
Vice Minister for the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries Kim Sung-bum said that while engaging with Moscow while sanctions remain in place is a challenge, the government will seek Russian approval in the first half of the year. He emphasized Seoul’s intent to address both issues "in parallel.”
 
In the private sector, major Korean firms are working to retain their business foothold in Russia. 
 
Hyundai Motor and Kia have secured trademarks in Russia extending into the 2030s. 
 
In December 2025, Hyundai received trademark approvals for several models, including its Genesis luxury brand. Samsung Electronics also filed new trademarks in Russia throughout 2025 for products ranging from TVs to signage systems.
 
Industry observers say these moves are primarily defensive, driven by legal obligations to maintain rights under Russian law, which cancels unused trademarks after three years. 
 
Some firms have voiced frustration at the constraints. 
 
“More than 70 percent of our revenue comes from exports, and over half of that was tied to Russia,” said a company executive involved in computer numerical control machinery and precision cutting tools. “After the Ukraine war broke out, licensing rules got tighter, exports halted, and our business was seriously hit.”
 

U.S. President Donald Trump, left, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, and Russian President Vladimir Putin [AP/YONHAP]

Obstacles to pragmatism 
 
Despite conciliatory messaging, little has changed at the working level.
 
No tangible change — such as sanctions relief, easing of export controls on strategic items or the restoration of direct flights — has followed Putin’s latest remarks. 
 
Russia’s Ambassador to South Korea Georgy Zinoviev said in a written response to the Korea JoongAng Daily that South Korea's participation in sanctions — repeatedly expanded under the previous government — is why the "unfriendly" status remains.
 
"In order to protect the Russian economy from their negative impact, certain measures [...] were devised,” the ambassador said, effectively keeping the ball in Seoul's court.
 
The elephant in the room remains Russia’s military ties with North Korea. 
 

North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of a "comprehensive strategic partnership" in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. [AP/YONHAP]

As North Korean troops and logistical support become more embedded in Russia’s military operations, Moscow gains leverage in ongoing and future negotiations, making it increasingly difficult for the Eurasian nation to distance itself from Pyongyang to improve ties with Seoul.
 
This also narrows Seoul’s diplomatic room for maneuver, as any attempt to rapidly upgrade relations with Moscow risks appearing to tolerate its neighbor's military cooperation with Russia, which directly undermines South Korea’s security interests. At the same time, Seoul faces constraints from its alliance with the United States and growing sensitivity in Europe, where alignment on Ukraine remains a key benchmark of political trust. 
 
Doo said both sides remain cautious, citing reports that a senior South Korean official handling the North Korean nuclear issue visited Moscow for closed-door talks late last year but encountered limited responsiveness publicly.
 
“Instead of addressing bilateral relations directly, Seoul has been forced to approach Russia indirectly through longstanding channels such as North Korea–related dialogue,” he said.
 
For now, both Seoul and Moscow appear constrained by their respective strategic calculations.
 
The real test will likely come in February, when Russia and Ukraine are expected to engage in a round of peace talks mediated by the United States. 
 
“The outcome of that negotiation will be a key indicator of whether Russia's external relations are entering a new phase,” said Park.
 
Until then, experts say some degree of forward-looking diplomatic preparation is necessary while preparing for a postwar transition.
 
“The goal is not immediate normalization, but lowering the level of confrontation,” Doo said. “That means gradually restoring working-level consultative channels — and, if conditions allow, considering the dispatch of a special envoy.” 

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]