U.S. Thaad shift to Middle East fuels security fears, yet also chance to strengthen local systems

 

A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test [US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE, MISSILE DEFENSE AGENCY, REUTERS/YONHAP]

 
In early March, six massive U.S. military trucks rolled out of Seongju, North Gyeongsang, bound for Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek before being deployed to the Middle East. The trucks carried a critical piece in Korea’s security umbrella: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) launchers, with each vehicle packed with eight interceptor missiles previously tasked with guarding the country's skies.
 
The redeployment to the Middle East marked the first overseas transfer of Korea-based Thaad interceptors since the system’s arrival in the country in 2017. 
 

Related Article

• Pentagon official calls U.S. 'flexibility' to meet urgent needs a 'strength' amid Thaad redeployment concerns

• Pentagon says USFK focused on 'combat-credible' force posture in Korea amid Thaad redeployment report

• U.S. reportedly moving parts of Thaad antimissile system from South Korea to Middle East

 
With no end in sight for the Iran war, the withdrawal has sparked speculation, nay panic, that Korea’s missile defense could be critically compromised by the vacuum created by Thaad’s departure. While the departure of the American missile shield is a setback for the peninsula's defense capabilities, experts say the effects are limited given alternative defensive solutions. Instead, this opportunity should be used to fast-track indigenous weapons and solidify its dominance in the global export market.
 
“It is true that Korea's missile defense has been weakened — we’ve lost one defense system, and we have fewer intercepting missiles,” Jung Kyeong-woon, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for Strategy, told the Korea JoongAng Daily. “But it would be an exaggeration to conclude that the country is in grave danger and open to attacks.”
 

The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) positioned in Seongju, North Gyeongsang on March 5 [YONHAP]

 
Security vacuum or strategic recalibration?


The anxiety in Seoul is not entirely without merit, especially with Washington being less-than-forthcoming about the Thaad relocation. When asked by U.S. lawmakers about the sudden withdrawal of Thaad from Korea, Pentagon officials appeared to dodge their questions. Defense Department officials also avoided giving clear answers on how long the Thaad relocation will last and whether Thaad missiles would be replenished in Korea.
 
The diplomatic ambiguity and lack of clear answers fueled the fears of a security vacuum in Korea. However, while concerns are justified, military strategists view the Thaad withdrawal as an unavoidable military expediency — at least for the United States. 
 
The Korean Missile Defense (KMD) system comprises multiple layers, combining Korean- and American-made missile defense systems to neutralize missiles at the terminal phase, that is, the final high-speed stage of a ballistic missile's flight, when the projectile reenters the atmosphere to hit the target.
 

A surface-to-air missile is fired from a Cheongung-II air defense system during live-fire drills in an unspecified western coastal area on Wednesday. [YONHAP]

 
At the very apex sits the U.S. Thaad system, tasked with neutralizing incoming missiles in the upper atmosphere. Directly below the Thaad is the critical mid-upper-atmospheric layer, expected to be filled with the domestically developed long-range surface-to-air missile (L-SAM) and its proposed advanced variant, L-SAM II. The lower layer comprises Patriot batteries and the medium-range surface-to-air missile (M-SAM) system, also known as the Cheongung, before the Korean Army takes over for lower-altitude defense.
 
The move to relocate Thaad, while unsettling, is a typical step to replenish depleted stocks.
 
“If the United States is fighting the war, it’s common sense that it will utilize its own assets,” researcher Jung said. Jung pointed out that the core of the Thaad system — the radar and the engagement control station — likely remains in Seongju, with only the physical interceptor missiles being rotated out to replenish the used-up stockpiles in the Middle East.
 
Cheongung’s burden  
 
The absence of Thaad does shift the immediate defense burden onto Korea’s own domestic systems, creating a dilemma for Korean defense giants. With the upper-tier Thaad shield reduced, the military is heavily reliant on the Korean-made M-SAM, manufactured by LIG Nex1, and the yet-to-be-deployed L-SAM, which Hanwha Aerospace and LIG Nex1 are both developing.
 

 
The L-SAM, dubbed “Korea's Thaad,” is designed as a locally developed alternative to the U.S. defense system. The phase one batch of the L-SAM, production of which only began in November of last year, will reportedly have a range of 60 kilometers (40 miles), compared to the maximum range of 150 kilometers provided by Thaad, while the proposed phase two batch will increase the interception range to 100 kilometers or more.
 
 
This raises the stakes for Korean defense firms tasked with producing the first batch of the L-SAM for the Korean Air Force while simultaneously supplying the much-requested Cheongung to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
 
The Cheongung quickly earned a name for itself in the Middle East following Iran’s missile strikes on its Gulf state neighbors. The Korean-made missile defense system, similar in operation to the American-made Patriot, achieved an impressive interception rate while being significantly cheaper, at almost a third of the Patriot's price. This led the UAE to request that Korea deliver more Cheongung batteries, according to multiple news reports.
 

A model for the long-range surface-to-air missile, commonly known as L-SAM, at the World Defense Show in Saudi Arabia in 2026. [HANWHA AEROSPACE]

 
Halting lucrative overseas exports to prioritize supplying Korean forces might seem like the optimum security choice, but experts disagree.
 
Instead, they say Korea should adopt the tactic it used when exporting K2 main battle tanks to Poland. In 2022, Korea decided to adjust Hyundai Rotem’s K2 tank production line for the Korean Army, tweaking it for production for Poland, effectively delaying local orders to prioritize urgent overseas needs.
 
Meeting the Middle East's urgent needs during a regional crisis would demonstrate K-defense's reliability and speed.
 
“Defense exports are the core of resolving the diseconomies of scale and creating a positive cycle for the defense ecosystem,” Professor Chang Won-joon from Jeonbuk National University’s Advanced Defense Industry Studies Department said, adding that increasing export production won't necessarily weaken Korea’s own military preparedness.
 
“Actively responding to the urgent air defense demands of strategic partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia is a crucial moment for Korea to secure both diplomatic justification and practical economic benefits."
 
At the same time, the government should support the industry in accelerating the deployment of L-SAM and the development of L-SAM II to ultimately close the upper-atmosphere missile defense gap.
 
“Hastening the deployment of the L-SAM, initially scheduled to begin at the end of this year, should also be heavily considered,” Professor Chang said. “This would minimize the public’s concern about the ‘defense vacuum’.”

BY CHO YONG-JUN [cho.yongjun1@joongang.co.kr]